Factors Affecting Manufacturing Exports
Abstract
This study aims to determine the factors that influence manufacturing exports in
Indonesia. This study uses time-series data with 40 data observations starting from
the 1st quarter of 2010 to the 4th quarter of 2019. This study's analysis method is the vector error correction model (VECM), which can dynamically describe the shortterm and long-term effects. Export determinants to be examined are inflation, the rupiah exchange rate, Gross Domestic Product (GDP), and Foreign Direct
Investment (FDI). This study indicates that inflation at lag 1 harms manufactured
exports both in the short and long term. Furthermore, GDP has a positive effect on
manufacturing exports in the short run at lag 1 and lag 2, while in the long run, GDP
has a positive effect only on lag 1. Meanwhile, the exchange rate and FDI factors did
not affect manufactured exports, both in the short and long term. This study implies
that inflation and GDP are essential factors in designing policies to increase exports
in Indonesia, including exports of manufactured products.
Keywords
Full Text:
PDFReferences
Abidin, I. S. Z., Bakar, N. A., & Sahlan, R. (2013). The Determinants of Exports between Malaysia and the OIC Member Countries: A Gravity Model Approach. Procedia Economics and Finance, 5(13), 12–19.
Abor, J., Adjasi, C. K. D., & Hayford, M. (2008). How Does Foreign Direct Investment Affect the Export Decisions of Firms in Ghana ? 446–465.
Alam, S., Ahmed, Q. M., & Shahbaz, M. (2017). Exchange Rate Volatility and Pakistan's Exports to Major Markets: A Sectoral Analysis. Global Business Review, 18(6), 1507–1519.
Bakar, N. A. A., Abidin, I. S. Z., & Haseeb, M. (2015). Investigating exports performance between Malaysia and OIC member countries from 1997-2012. Asian Social Science, 11(7), 11–18.
Bank Indonesia. (2020). Statistik Ekonomi dan Keuangan Indonesia (SEKI). Bi.Go.Id. https://www.bi.go.id/id/statistik/seki/terkini/riil/Contents/Default.aspx
Bekele, D. T. (2020). The Impact of Macroeconomic Factors on Manufacturing Sector Value Added in Ethiopia : An Application of Bounds Testing Approach to Cointegration. 23(1), 96–107.
Chand, R., Singh, R., Patel, A., Jain, D. K., & Read, R. (2020). Export performance , governance , and economic growth : evidence from Fiji - a small and vulnerable economy. Cogent Economics & Finance, 8(1), 1–16.
Deh, Y. (2016). Munich Personal RePEc Archive What is the effect of Inflation on Manufacturing Sector Productivity in Ghana ? (Issue 75145).
Ekananda, M. (2018). Analisis Ekonometrika Time Series (2nd ed.). Mitra Wacana Media.
Granger, C. W. J. (1988). Causality, cointegration, and control c.w.j. granger. 12(January), 551–559.
Gujarati, D. N. (2004). Basic Econometrics 4th Edition. In Tata McGraw-Hill.
Hall, S., Hondroyiannis, G., Swamy, P. A. V. B., Tavlas, G., & Ulan, M. (2010). Exchange-rate volatility and export performance: Do emerging market economies resemble industrial countries or other developing countries? Economic Modelling, 27(6), 1514–1521.
Haseeb, M., Hariyatie Hartani, N., Abu Bakar, N. A., Azam, M., & Hassan, S. (2014). Exports, foreign direct investment and economic growth: Empirical evidence from Malaysia (1971-2013). American Journal of Applied Sciences, 11(6), 1010–1015.
Hsiao, F. S. T. (2006). FDI , Exports , and Growth in East and Southeast Asia --Evidence from Time-Series and Panel Data Causality Analyses FDI , Exports , and Growth in East and Southeast Asia --Evidence from Time-Series and Panel Data Causality Analyses. 303.
Indonesian Ministry of Industry. (2018). Industri Manufaktur Dominasi Nilai Ekspor Nasional Hingga 72 Persen. Https://Kemenperin.Go.Id/. https://kemenperin.go.id/artikel/19830/Industri-Manufaktur-Dominasi-Nilai-Ekspor-Nasional-Hingga-72-Persen
Johansen, S. (1991). Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Modelsle (Vol. 59, Issue 6). The Econometric Society. http://www.jstor.org/stable/2938278 .%0D
Jongwanich, J. (2010). Determinants of export performance in East and Southeast Asia. World Economy, 33(1), 20–41.
Judith, M. N., & Chijindu, E. H. Dynamics of Inflation and Manufacturing Sector Performance in Nigeria: Analysis of Effect and Causality. International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, 6(4), 1400-1406.
Mehrara, M., & Firouzjaee, B. A. (2011). Granger Causality Relationship between Export Growth and GDP Growth in Developing Countries : Panel Cointegration Approach Mohsen Mehrara Faculty of Economics , University of Tehran University of Tehran. 1(16), 223–231.
Mujtaba, G., Haider, S., & Asif, M. (2016). Exchange Rate and Foreign Trade : A Comparative Study of Major South Asian and South-East Asian Countries. Procedia - Social and Behavioral Sciences, 230(May), 85–93.
Narjoko, D. (2009). Foreign Presence Spillovers and Firms ' Export Response : Evidence from the Indonesian Manufacturing *.
Nguyen, B. X. (2010). The Determinants of Vietnamese Export Flows: Static and Dynamic Panel Gravity Approaches. International Journal of Economics and Finance, 2(4), 122–129.
Oo, T., Kueh, J., & Hla, D. T. (2019). Determinants of Export Performance in ASEAN Region: Panel Data Analysis. International Business Research, 12(8), 1-14.
Prasanna, N. (2017). Impact of Foreign Direct Investment on Export Performance in India Impact of Foreign Direct Investment on Export Performance in India. 8923.
Rahmaddi, R., & Ichihashi, M. (2013). Bulletin of Indonesian Economic Studies The role of foreign direct investment in Indonesia ' s manufacturing exports. April 2015, 37–41.
Rakhman, A. (2012). Determination of export volume and hedging strategy: a survey of exporter's transaction at the Makassar industrial estate (kima)e. Journal of Economics, Business, and Accountancy Ventura, 15(3), 389 – 402.
Safuan, S. (2017). Exchange Rate Volatility and Export Volume: The Case of Indonesia and its Main Trading Partners. European Research Studies Journal, 20(3A), 3-13.
Sharma, K. (2003). Factors determining India's export performance. Journal of Asian Economics, 14(3), 435–446.
Singh, H., & Mahmood, R. (2014). Aligning Manufacturing Strategy to Export Performance of Manufacturing Small and Medium Enterprises in Malaysia. Procedia - Social and Behavioral Sciences, 130, 85–95.
Tumwebaze, H. K. (2015). Determinants of Uganda's Export Performance: A Gravity Model Analysis. International Journal of Business and Economics Research, 4(2), 3-18.
Uysal, O and Mohamoud, A. S. (2018). Determinants of Export Performance in East Africa Countries. Chinese Business Review, 17(4), 2–6.
DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.14414/jebav.v23i2.2303
Refbacks
- There are currently no refbacks.
Copyright (c) 2020 Journal of Economics, Business, & Accountancy Ventura
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.
Abstracting & Indexing
Copyright @ 2010 Pusat Penelitian dan Pengabdian Masyarakat Sekolah Tinggi Ilmu Ekonomi (PPPM STIE)